Ngezi Platinum 2–0 Harare City: Result & Stats

Ngezi Platinum

FT

2 – 0

Harare City

8/3/2019

Premier Soccer League · Round 17Baobab Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Ngezi Platinum53%

×Draw28%

Harare City19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ngezi PlatinumExpected goals in this matchHarare City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

0.71

Ngezi Platinum

1.37

Harare City

0.71

Ngezi Platinum creates 93% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 34 away

1.56

creates per match

0.79

0.63

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Ngezi Platinum

1.56

Harare City

0.79

allows per match

Ngezi Platinum

0.63

Harare City

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ngezi Platinum+0.00on par

Harare City+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ngezi Platinum ↓

Harare City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Ngezi Platinum or draw

81%

Ngezi Platinum or Harare City

72%

Draw or Harare City

47%

Winning margin

Ngezi Platinum wins by 2+

26%

Harare City wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Ngezi Platinum 1+ goals

75%

Ngezi Platinum 2+ goals

40%

Ngezi Platinum 3+ goals

16%

Harare City 1+ goals

51%

Harare City 2+ goals

16%

Harare City 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Ngezi Platinum (draw refunded)

73%

Harare City (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ngezi Platinum at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.63 · 97 matches

Harare City away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.18 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ngezi Platinum attack 1.56 + Harare City defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.37

Harare City attack 0.79 + Ngezi Platinum defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Ngezi Platinum scores more

53%

level

28%

Harare City scores more

19%

Ngezi Platinum at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Ngezi Platinum will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff