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Harare City vs Ngezi Platinum — Premier Soccer League 2026

Harare City
Harare City
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Ngezi Platinum
Ngezi Platinum
T. January 65'
Q. Amin 83'
10/8/2022Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 30National Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Harare City34%
×Draw33%
Ngezi Platinum33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Harare City
0.88
Ngezi Platinum
0.87

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 37 home / 96 away

creates per match

Harare City
0.95
Ngezi Platinum
0.88

allows per match

Harare City
0.86
Ngezi Platinum
0.80

finishing

Harare City+0.00on par
Ngezi Platinum+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Harare City ↓

Ngezi Platinum →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–115%
0–27%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
52%48%2.5
26%74%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Harare City or draw
67%
Harare City or Ngezi Platinum
67%
Draw or Ngezi Platinum
66%

Winning margin

Harare City wins by 2+
12%
Ngezi Platinum wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Harare City 1+ goals
59%
Harare City 2+ goals
22%
Harare City 3+ goals
6%
Ngezi Platinum 1+ goals
58%
Ngezi Platinum 2+ goals
22%
Ngezi Platinum 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Harare City (draw refunded)
50%
Ngezi Platinum (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Harare City at home — creates 0.95, concedes 0.86 · 37 matches

Ngezi Platinum away — creates 0.88, concedes 0.80 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Harare City attack 0.95 + Ngezi Platinum defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.88

Ngezi Platinum attack 0.88 + Harare City defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 34%?"

Harare City scores more
34%
level
33%
Ngezi Platinum scores more
33%

Harare City at 34% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 34% does not mean "Harare City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

65'
T. January
83'
Q. Amin

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Harare City vs Ngezi Platinum

Harare City and Ngezi Platinum drew 1-1 in Premier Soccer League on October 8, 2022.

Goals: T. January (65'), Q. Amin (83').

The match was played at National Sports Stadium in Harare.