Ngezi Platinum 0–0 Chapungu United: Result & Stats

Ngezi Platinum

FT

0 – 0

Chapungu United

11/16/2019

Premier Soccer League · Round 31Baobab Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Ngezi Platinum51%

×Draw31%

Chapungu United18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ngezi PlatinumExpected goals in this matchChapungu United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

0.58

Ngezi Platinum

1.19

Chapungu United

0.58

Ngezi Platinum creates 105% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 17 away

1.56

creates per match

0.53

0.63

allows per match

0.82

creates per match

Ngezi Platinum

1.56

Chapungu United

0.53

allows per match

Ngezi Platinum

0.63

Chapungu United

0.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ngezi Platinum+0.00on par

Chapungu United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under74
Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No69
Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ngezi Platinum ↓

Chapungu United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–017%

0–110%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–020%

1–112%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

83%17%1.5

53%47%2.5

26%74%3.5

10%90%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Ngezi Platinum or draw

82%

Ngezi Platinum or Chapungu United

69%

Draw or Chapungu United

49%

Winning margin

Ngezi Platinum wins by 2+

23%

Chapungu United wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Ngezi Platinum 1+ goals

70%

Ngezi Platinum 2+ goals

33%

Ngezi Platinum 3+ goals

12%

Chapungu United 1+ goals

44%

Chapungu United 2+ goals

12%

Chapungu United 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Ngezi Platinum (draw refunded)

74%

Chapungu United (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

19%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ngezi Platinum at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.63 · 97 matches

Chapungu United away — creates 0.53, concedes 0.82 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ngezi Platinum attack 1.56 + Chapungu United defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.19

Chapungu United attack 0.53 + Ngezi Platinum defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Ngezi Platinum scores more

51%

level

31%

Chapungu United scores more

18%

Ngezi Platinum at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Ngezi Platinum will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff