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Chapungu United vs Ngezi Platinum — Premier Soccer League 2026

Chapungu United
Chapungu United
FT
0 – 0
Ngezi Platinum
Ngezi Platinum
7/13/2019Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 14Mandava Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Chapungu United37%
×Draw30%
Ngezi Platinum33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chapungu United
1.08
Ngezi Platinum
1.00

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 96 away

creates per match

Chapungu United
1.35
Ngezi Platinum
0.88

allows per match

Chapungu United
1.12
Ngezi Platinum
0.80

finishing

Chapungu United+0.00on par
Ngezi Platinum+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chapungu United ↓

Ngezi Platinum →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Chapungu United or draw
67%
Chapungu United or Ngezi Platinum
70%
Draw or Ngezi Platinum
63%

Winning margin

Chapungu United wins by 2+
15%
Ngezi Platinum wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Chapungu United 1+ goals
66%
Chapungu United 2+ goals
29%
Chapungu United 3+ goals
10%
Ngezi Platinum 1+ goals
63%
Ngezi Platinum 2+ goals
26%
Ngezi Platinum 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Chapungu United (draw refunded)
53%
Ngezi Platinum (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chapungu United at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.12 · 17 matches

Ngezi Platinum away — creates 0.88, concedes 0.80 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chapungu United attack 1.35 + Ngezi Platinum defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.08

Ngezi Platinum attack 0.88 + Chapungu United defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Chapungu United scores more
37%
level
30%
Ngezi Platinum scores more
33%

Chapungu United at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Chapungu United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chapungu United vs Ngezi Platinum

Chapungu United and Ngezi Platinum drew 0-0 in Premier Soccer League on July 13, 2019.

The match was played at Mandava Stadium in Zvishavane.