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Ngaoundéré vs Lion Blessé — Elite Two 2020

Ngaoundéré
Ngaoundéré
CANC
00:00
Lion Blessé
Lion Blessé
6/4/2022Elite TwoElite Two · Round 18

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Ngaoundéré42%
×Draw28%
Lion Blessé30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ngaoundéré
1.31
Lion Blessé
1.06

Ngaoundéré creates 24% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

creates per match

Ngaoundéré
1.29
Lion Blessé
0.83

allows per match

Ngaoundéré
1.29
Lion Blessé
1.33

finishing

Ngaoundéré+0.00on par
Lion Blessé+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ngaoundéré ↓

Lion Blessé →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Ngaoundéré or draw
70%
Ngaoundéré or Lion Blessé
72%
Draw or Lion Blessé
58%

Winning margin

Ngaoundéré wins by 2+
19%
Lion Blessé wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Ngaoundéré 1+ goals
73%
Ngaoundéré 2+ goals
38%
Ngaoundéré 3+ goals
14%
Lion Blessé 1+ goals
65%
Lion Blessé 2+ goals
29%
Lion Blessé 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Ngaoundéré (draw refunded)
58%
Lion Blessé (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ngaoundéré at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

Lion Blessé away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ngaoundéré attack 1.29 + Lion Blessé defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.31

Lion Blessé attack 0.83 + Ngaoundéré defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Ngaoundéré scores more
42%
level
28%
Lion Blessé scores more
30%

Ngaoundéré at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Ngaoundéré will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Ngaoundéré host Lion Blessé

June 4, 2022: Ngaoundéré take on Lion Blessé in Elite Two. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.