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Lion Blessé vs Ngaoundéré — Elite Two 2020

Lion Blessé
Lion Blessé
FT
3 – 2
Ngaoundéré
Ngaoundéré
7/13/2021Elite TwoElite Two · Round 9

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Lion Blessé53%
×Draw21%
Ngaoundéré26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lion Blessé
2.13
Ngaoundéré
1.46

Lion Blessé creates 46% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

creates per match

Lion Blessé
2.43
Ngaoundéré
1.50

allows per match

Lion Blessé
1.43
Ngaoundéré
1.83

finishing

Lion Blessé+0.00on par
Ngaoundéré+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lion Blessé ↓

Ngaoundéré →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Lion Blessé or draw
74%
Lion Blessé or Ngaoundéré
79%
Draw or Ngaoundéré
47%

Winning margin

Lion Blessé wins by 2+
31%
Ngaoundéré wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Lion Blessé 1+ goals
88%
Lion Blessé 2+ goals
63%
Lion Blessé 3+ goals
35%
Ngaoundéré 1+ goals
77%
Ngaoundéré 2+ goals
43%
Ngaoundéré 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Lion Blessé (draw refunded)
67%
Ngaoundéré (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lion Blessé at home — creates 2.43, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

Ngaoundéré away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lion Blessé attack 2.43 + Ngaoundéré defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 2.13

Ngaoundéré attack 1.50 + Lion Blessé defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Lion Blessé scores more
53%
level
21%
Ngaoundéré scores more
26%

Lion Blessé at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Lion Blessé will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lion Blessé vs Ngaoundéré

Lion Blessé beat Ngaoundéré 3-2 in Elite Two on July 13, 2021.