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Ngaoundéré vs Foncha ST — Elite Two 2020

Ngaoundéré
Ngaoundéré
CANC
00:00
Foncha ST
Foncha ST
7/3/2022Elite TwoElite Two · Round 25

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Ngaoundéré50%
×Draw24%
Foncha ST26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ngaoundéré
1.71
Foncha ST
1.17

Ngaoundéré creates 46% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 50 away

creates per match

Ngaoundéré
1.29
Foncha ST
1.04

allows per match

Ngaoundéré
1.29
Foncha ST
2.12

finishing

Ngaoundéré+0.00on par
Foncha ST+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ngaoundéré ↓

Foncha ST →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Ngaoundéré or draw
74%
Ngaoundéré or Foncha ST
76%
Draw or Foncha ST
50%

Winning margin

Ngaoundéré wins by 2+
27%
Foncha ST wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Ngaoundéré 1+ goals
82%
Ngaoundéré 2+ goals
51%
Ngaoundéré 3+ goals
24%
Foncha ST 1+ goals
69%
Foncha ST 2+ goals
33%
Foncha ST 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Ngaoundéré (draw refunded)
66%
Foncha ST (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ngaoundéré at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

Foncha ST away — creates 1.04, concedes 2.12 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ngaoundéré attack 1.29 + Foncha ST defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.71

Foncha ST attack 1.04 + Ngaoundéré defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Ngaoundéré scores more
50%
level
24%
Foncha ST scores more
26%

Ngaoundéré at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Ngaoundéré will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Ngaoundéré host Foncha ST

July 3, 2022: Ngaoundéré take on Foncha ST in Elite Two. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.