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Foncha ST vs Ngaoundéré — Elite Two 2020

Foncha ST
Foncha ST
CANC
00:00
Ngaoundéré
Ngaoundéré
5/10/2022Elite TwoElite Two · Round 12

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Foncha ST45%
×Draw25%
Ngaoundéré31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Foncha ST
1.59
Ngaoundéré
1.28

Foncha ST creates 24% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 6 away

creates per match

Foncha ST
1.35
Ngaoundéré
1.50

allows per match

Foncha ST
1.06
Ngaoundéré
1.83

finishing

Foncha ST+0.00on par
Ngaoundéré+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Foncha ST ↓

Ngaoundéré →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Foncha ST or draw
69%
Foncha ST or Ngaoundéré
75%
Draw or Ngaoundéré
55%

Winning margin

Foncha ST wins by 2+
23%
Ngaoundéré wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Foncha ST 1+ goals
80%
Foncha ST 2+ goals
47%
Foncha ST 3+ goals
21%
Ngaoundéré 1+ goals
72%
Ngaoundéré 2+ goals
37%
Ngaoundéré 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Foncha ST (draw refunded)
59%
Ngaoundéré (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Foncha ST at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.06 · 49 matches

Ngaoundéré away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Foncha ST attack 1.35 + Ngaoundéré defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.59

Ngaoundéré attack 1.50 + Foncha ST defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Foncha ST scores more
45%
level
25%
Ngaoundéré scores more
31%

Foncha ST at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Foncha ST will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Foncha ST face Ngaoundéré (Elite Two)

Elite Two returns with Foncha ST hosting Ngaoundéré. Match starts May 10, 2022. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.