Ngaoundéré vs Dynamo de Douala

Ngaoundéré

CANC

00:00

Dynamo de Douala

6/21/2022

Elite Two · Round 22

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Ngaoundéré38%

×Draw29%

Dynamo de Douala33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NgaoundéréExpected goals in this matchDynamo de Douala

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

1.09

Ngaoundéré

1.18

Dynamo de Douala

1.09

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 18 away

1.29

creates per match

0.89

1.29

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Ngaoundéré

1.29

Dynamo de Douala

0.89

allows per match

Ngaoundéré

1.29

Dynamo de Douala

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ngaoundéré+0.00on par

Dynamo de Douala+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ngaoundéré ↓

Dynamo de Douala →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Ngaoundéré or draw

67%

Ngaoundéré or Dynamo de Douala

71%

Draw or Dynamo de Douala

62%

Winning margin

Ngaoundéré wins by 2+

16%

Dynamo de Douala wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Ngaoundéré 1+ goals

69%

Ngaoundéré 2+ goals

33%

Ngaoundéré 3+ goals

12%

Dynamo de Douala 1+ goals

66%

Dynamo de Douala 2+ goals

30%

Dynamo de Douala 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Ngaoundéré (draw refunded)

53%

Dynamo de Douala (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ngaoundéré at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

Dynamo de Douala away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.06 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ngaoundéré attack 1.29 + Dynamo de Douala defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.18

Dynamo de Douala attack 0.89 + Ngaoundéré defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Ngaoundéré scores more

38%

level

29%

Dynamo de Douala scores more

33%

Ngaoundéré at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Ngaoundéré will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff