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Dynamo de Douala vs Ngaoundéré — Elite Two 2020

Dynamo de Douala
Dynamo de Douala
FT
1 – 0
Ngaoundéré
Ngaoundéré
4/16/2021Elite TwoElite Two · Round 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Dynamo de Douala46%
×Draw24%
Ngaoundéré30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dynamo de Douala
1.68
Ngaoundéré
1.31

Dynamo de Douala creates 28% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 6 away

creates per match

Dynamo de Douala
1.53
Ngaoundéré
1.50

allows per match

Dynamo de Douala
1.11
Ngaoundéré
1.83

finishing

Dynamo de Douala+0.00on par
Ngaoundéré+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamo de Douala ↓

Ngaoundéré →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Dynamo de Douala or draw
70%
Dynamo de Douala or Ngaoundéré
76%
Draw or Ngaoundéré
54%

Winning margin

Dynamo de Douala wins by 2+
24%
Ngaoundéré wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Dynamo de Douala 1+ goals
81%
Dynamo de Douala 2+ goals
50%
Dynamo de Douala 3+ goals
24%
Ngaoundéré 1+ goals
73%
Ngaoundéré 2+ goals
38%
Ngaoundéré 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Dynamo de Douala (draw refunded)
61%
Ngaoundéré (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dynamo de Douala at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches

Ngaoundéré away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dynamo de Douala attack 1.53 + Ngaoundéré defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.68

Ngaoundéré attack 1.50 + Dynamo de Douala defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Dynamo de Douala scores more
46%
level
24%
Ngaoundéré scores more
30%

Dynamo de Douala at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Dynamo de Douala will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elite Two: Dynamo de Douala 1–0 Ngaoundéré

Dynamo de Douala beat Ngaoundéré 1-0 in Elite Two on April 16, 2021.