Newry City AFC 2–1 Bangor: Result & Stats

Newry City AFC

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Bangor

R. McNickle 25', 6'

M. Morgan 54'

1/17/2025

League #407 · Round 25The Showgrounds

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Newry City AFC20%

×Draw19%

Bangor60%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Newry City AFCExpected goals in this matchBangor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

2.38

Newry City AFC

1.33

Bangor

2.38

Bangor creates 79% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 19 away

1.33

creates per match

2.58

2.17

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Newry City AFC

1.33

Bangor

2.58

allows per match

Newry City AFC

2.17

Bangor

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Newry City AFC+0.00on par

Bangor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Newry City AFC ↓

Bangor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–16%

0–27%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–03%

1–18%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Newry City AFC or draw

40%

Newry City AFC or Bangor

81%

Draw or Bangor

80%

Winning margin

Newry City AFC wins by 2+

8%

Bangor wins by 2+

39%

Team goals

Newry City AFC 1+ goals

74%

Newry City AFC 2+ goals

38%

Newry City AFC 3+ goals

15%

Bangor 1+ goals

91%

Bangor 2+ goals

68%

Bangor 3+ goals

42%

Draw no bet

Newry City AFC (draw refunded)

25%

Bangor (draw refunded)

75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Newry City AFC at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.17 · 6 matches

Bangor away — creates 2.58, concedes 1.32 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Newry City AFC attack 1.33 + Bangor defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.33

Bangor attack 2.58 + Newry City AFC defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Newry City AFC scores more

20%

level

19%

Bangor scores more

60%

Bangor at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Bangor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

R. McNickle

25'

R. McNickle

54'

M. Morgan

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff