Bangor 3–0 Newry City AFC: Result & Stats

Bangor

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Newry City AFC

L. Harrison 90+3'

S. McGuinness 18'

B. Arthurs 15'

11/17/2024

League #407 · Round 16Bangor Fuels Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Bangor66%

×Draw19%

Newry City AFC15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BangorExpected goals in this matchNewry City AFC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.29

0.99

Bangor

2.29

Newry City AFC

0.99

Bangor creates 131% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 6 away

2.40

creates per match

0.83

1.15

allows per match

2.17

creates per match

Bangor

2.40

Newry City AFC

0.83

allows per match

Bangor

1.15

Newry City AFC

2.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bangor+0.00on par

Newry City AFC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bangor ↓

Newry City AFC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Bangor or draw

85%

Bangor or Newry City AFC

81%

Draw or Newry City AFC

34%

Winning margin

Bangor wins by 2+

43%

Newry City AFC wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Bangor 1+ goals

90%

Bangor 2+ goals

66%

Bangor 3+ goals

40%

Newry City AFC 1+ goals

63%

Newry City AFC 2+ goals

26%

Newry City AFC 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Bangor (draw refunded)

82%

Newry City AFC (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bangor at home — creates 2.40, concedes 1.15 · 20 matches

Newry City AFC away — creates 0.83, concedes 2.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bangor attack 2.40 + Newry City AFC defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.29

Newry City AFC attack 0.83 + Bangor defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Bangor scores more

66%

level

19%

Newry City AFC scores more

15%

Bangor at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Bangor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

B. Arthurs

18'

S. McGuinness

90+3'

L. Harrison

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff