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Newry City AFC vs Armagh City — League #407 2026

Newry City AFC
Newry City AFC
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Armagh City
Armagh City
L. Forde 27'
I. Rutkowski 77' (pen)
11/8/2024League #407League #407 · Round 15The Showgrounds

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Newry City AFC50%
×Draw21%
Armagh City29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Newry City AFC
2.13
Armagh City
1.58

Newry City AFC creates 35% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 16 away

creates per match

Newry City AFC
1.33
Armagh City
1.00

allows per match

Newry City AFC
2.17
Armagh City
2.94

finishing

Newry City AFC+0.00on par
Armagh City+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Newry City AFC ↓

Armagh City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Newry City AFC or draw
71%
Newry City AFC or Armagh City
79%
Draw or Armagh City
50%

Winning margin

Newry City AFC wins by 2+
30%
Armagh City wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Newry City AFC 1+ goals
88%
Newry City AFC 2+ goals
63%
Newry City AFC 3+ goals
35%
Armagh City 1+ goals
79%
Armagh City 2+ goals
47%
Armagh City 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Newry City AFC (draw refunded)
64%
Armagh City (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Newry City AFC at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.17 · 6 matches

Armagh City away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.94 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Newry City AFC attack 1.33 + Armagh City defence 2.94 → ÷2 → 2.13

Armagh City attack 1.00 + Newry City AFC defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Newry City AFC scores more
50%
level
21%
Armagh City scores more
29%

Newry City AFC at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Newry City AFC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'
L. Forde
77'
I. RutkowskiPenalty
88'
L. Forde
88'
L. Forde

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Newry City AFC 1 – 1 Armagh City

Newry City AFC and Armagh City drew 1-1 in League #407 on November 8, 2024.

Goals: L. Forde (27'), I. Rutkowski (77' pen).

The match was played at The Showgrounds in Newry.