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Armagh City vs Newry City AFC — League #407 2026

Armagh City
Armagh City
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Newry City AFC
Newry City AFC
O. Degelman 77'
R. Duffy 61'
J. Doona 56'
I. Rutkowski 15' (pen)
R. McNickle 81'
4/12/2025League #407League #407 · Relegation Round - 3Holm Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Armagh City43%
×Draw22%
Newry City AFC35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Armagh City
1.92
Newry City AFC
1.71

Armagh City creates 12% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 6 away

creates per match

Armagh City
1.68
Newry City AFC
0.83

allows per match

Armagh City
2.58
Newry City AFC
2.17

finishing

Armagh City+0.00on par
Newry City AFC+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Armagh City ↓

Newry City AFC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Armagh City or draw
65%
Armagh City or Newry City AFC
78%
Draw or Newry City AFC
57%

Winning margin

Armagh City wins by 2+
24%
Newry City AFC wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Armagh City 1+ goals
85%
Armagh City 2+ goals
57%
Armagh City 3+ goals
30%
Newry City AFC 1+ goals
82%
Newry City AFC 2+ goals
51%
Newry City AFC 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Armagh City (draw refunded)
55%
Newry City AFC (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Armagh City at home — creates 1.68, concedes 2.58 · 19 matches

Newry City AFC away — creates 0.83, concedes 2.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Armagh City attack 1.68 + Newry City AFC defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.92

Newry City AFC attack 0.83 + Armagh City defence 2.58 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Armagh City scores more
43%
level
22%
Newry City AFC scores more
35%

Armagh City at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Armagh City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'
I. RutkowskiPenalty
17'
G. Poynton
56'
J. Doona
61'
R. Duffy
77'
O. Degelman
81'
R. McNickle

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Armagh City vs Newry City AFC

Armagh City beat Newry City AFC 4-1 in League #407 on April 12, 2025.

Goals: I. Rutkowski (15' pen), J. Doona (56'), R. Duffy (61'), O. Degelman (77'), R. McNickle (81').

The match was played at Holm Park in Armagh.