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Newroz vs Naft Maysan — Iraqi League 2020

Newroz
Newroz
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Naft Maysan
Naft Maysan
4/12/2025Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 27Nowruz Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Newroz41%
×Draw30%
Naft Maysan29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Newroz
1.16
Naft Maysan
0.93

Newroz creates 25% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 112 away

creates per match

Newroz
1.00
Naft Maysan
1.06

allows per match

Newroz
0.80
Naft Maysan
1.31

finishing

Newroz+0.00on par
Naft Maysan+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Newroz ↓

Naft Maysan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Newroz or draw
71%
Newroz or Naft Maysan
70%
Draw or Naft Maysan
59%

Winning margin

Newroz wins by 2+
17%
Naft Maysan wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Newroz 1+ goals
69%
Newroz 2+ goals
32%
Newroz 3+ goals
11%
Naft Maysan 1+ goals
61%
Naft Maysan 2+ goals
24%
Naft Maysan 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Newroz (draw refunded)
58%
Naft Maysan (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Newroz at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.80 · 15 matches

Naft Maysan away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.31 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Newroz attack 1.00 + Naft Maysan defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.16

Naft Maysan attack 1.06 + Newroz defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Newroz scores more
41%
level
30%
Naft Maysan scores more
29%

Newroz at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Newroz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Newroz vs Naft Maysan

Newroz and Naft Maysan drew 2-2 in Iraqi League on April 12, 2025.

The match was played at Nowruz Stadium in Sulaymaniyah.