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Naft Maysan vs Newroz — Iraqi League 2020

Naft Maysan
Naft Maysan
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Newroz
Newroz
12/11/2024Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 11Maysan International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Naft Maysan31%
×Draw27%
Newroz42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Naft Maysan
1.15
Newroz
1.38

Newroz creates 20% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 16 away

creates per match

Naft Maysan
1.04
Newroz
1.56

allows per match

Naft Maysan
1.19
Newroz
1.25

finishing

Naft Maysan+0.00on par
Newroz+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Naft Maysan ↓

Newroz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Naft Maysan or draw
58%
Naft Maysan or Newroz
73%
Draw or Newroz
69%

Winning margin

Naft Maysan wins by 2+
13%
Newroz wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Naft Maysan 1+ goals
68%
Naft Maysan 2+ goals
32%
Naft Maysan 3+ goals
11%
Newroz 1+ goals
75%
Newroz 2+ goals
40%
Newroz 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Naft Maysan (draw refunded)
43%
Newroz (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Naft Maysan at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.19 · 108 matches

Newroz away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.25 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Naft Maysan attack 1.04 + Newroz defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.15

Newroz attack 1.56 + Naft Maysan defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Naft Maysan scores more
31%
level
27%
Newroz scores more
42%

Newroz at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Newroz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Naft Maysan vs Newroz

Naft Maysan beat Newroz 1-0 in Iraqi League on December 11, 2024.

The match was played at Maysan International Stadium in Al Amarah.