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Newroz vs Al Talaba — Iraqi League 2025

Newroz
Newroz
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Al Talaba
Al Talaba
Z. Ismaeel 82'
1/14/2026Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 12

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Newroz35%
×Draw29%
Al Talaba36%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Newroz
1.11
Al Talaba
1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 23 home / 36 away

creates per match

Newroz
1.26
Al Talaba
1.28

allows per match

Newroz
1.00
Al Talaba
0.97

finishing

Newroz+0.00on par
Al Talaba+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Newroz ↓

Al Talaba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Newroz or draw
64%
Newroz or Al Talaba
71%
Draw or Al Talaba
65%

Winning margin

Newroz wins by 2+
14%
Al Talaba wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Newroz 1+ goals
67%
Newroz 2+ goals
30%
Newroz 3+ goals
10%
Al Talaba 1+ goals
68%
Al Talaba 2+ goals
32%
Al Talaba 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Newroz (draw refunded)
49%
Al Talaba (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Newroz at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.00 · 23 matches

Al Talaba away — creates 1.28, concedes 0.97 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Newroz attack 1.26 + Al Talaba defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.11

Al Talaba attack 1.28 + Newroz defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Newroz scores more
35%
level
29%
Al Talaba scores more
36%

Al Talaba at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Al Talaba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

82'
Z. Ismaeel

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Iraqi League: Newroz 0–1 Al Talaba

Al Talaba beat Newroz 1-0 in Iraqi League on January 14, 2026.

Goals: Z. Ismaeel (82').