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Al Talaba vs Newroz — Iraqi League 2025

Al Talaba
Al Talaba
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Newroz
Newroz
Karar Jasem Mohammd 6' (pen)
6/8/2024Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 23Al-Shaab Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Al Talaba39%
×Draw29%
Newroz32%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Talaba
1.20
Newroz
1.06

Al Talaba creates 13% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 30 away

creates per match

Al Talaba
1.13
Newroz
1.23

allows per match

Al Talaba
0.90
Newroz
1.27

finishing

Al Talaba+0.00on par
Newroz+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Talaba ↓

Newroz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Al Talaba or draw
68%
Al Talaba or Newroz
71%
Draw or Newroz
61%

Winning margin

Al Talaba wins by 2+
17%
Newroz wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Al Talaba 1+ goals
70%
Al Talaba 2+ goals
34%
Al Talaba 3+ goals
12%
Newroz 1+ goals
65%
Newroz 2+ goals
29%
Newroz 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Al Talaba (draw refunded)
55%
Newroz (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Talaba at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.90 · 39 matches

Newroz away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.27 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Talaba attack 1.13 + Newroz defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.20

Newroz attack 1.23 + Al Talaba defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Al Talaba scores more
39%
level
29%
Newroz scores more
32%

Al Talaba at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Al Talaba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'
Karar Jasem MohammdPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Talaba vs Newroz

Al Talaba beat Newroz 1-0 in Iraqi League on June 8, 2024.

Goals: Karar Jasem Mohammd (6' pen).

The match was played at Al-Shaab Stadium in Bagdad.