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Newroz vs Al Karkh — Iraqi League 2021

Newroz
Newroz
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Al Karkh
Al Karkh
Mortada Hodib 85'
Younes Ghani 75'
12/30/2023Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 12Sulaymaniyah Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Newroz40%
×Draw28%
Al Karkh32%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Newroz
1.26
Al Karkh
1.10

Newroz creates 15% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 108 away

creates per match

Newroz
1.45
Al Karkh
1.02

allows per match

Newroz
1.18
Al Karkh
1.07

finishing

Newroz+0.00on par
Al Karkh+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Newroz ↓

Al Karkh →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Newroz or draw
68%
Newroz or Al Karkh
72%
Draw or Al Karkh
60%

Winning margin

Newroz wins by 2+
18%
Al Karkh wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Newroz 1+ goals
72%
Newroz 2+ goals
36%
Newroz 3+ goals
13%
Al Karkh 1+ goals
67%
Al Karkh 2+ goals
30%
Al Karkh 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Newroz (draw refunded)
55%
Al Karkh (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Newroz at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.18 · 76 matches

Al Karkh away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.07 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Newroz attack 1.45 + Al Karkh defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.26

Al Karkh attack 1.02 + Newroz defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Newroz scores more
40%
level
28%
Al Karkh scores more
32%

Newroz at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Newroz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

75'
Younes Ghani
85'
Mortada Hodib

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Iraqi League: Newroz 1–1 Al Karkh

Newroz and Al Karkh drew 1-1 in Iraqi League on December 30, 2023.

Goals: Younes Ghani (75'), Mortada Hodib (85').

The match was played at Sulaymaniyah Stadium in Sulaymaniyah.