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Al Karkh vs Newroz — Iraqi League 2025

Al Karkh
Al Karkh
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Newroz
Newroz
A. Qasim Yousef 52'
Y. Hamoud 45', 35'
1/22/2026Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 14

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Al Karkh36%
×Draw27%
Newroz36%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Karkh
1.23
Newroz
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 36 home / 30 away

creates per match

Al Karkh
1.19
Newroz
1.23

allows per match

Al Karkh
1.22
Newroz
1.27

finishing

Al Karkh+0.00on par
Newroz+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Karkh ↓

Newroz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Al Karkh or draw
64%
Al Karkh or Newroz
73%
Draw or Newroz
64%

Winning margin

Al Karkh wins by 2+
16%
Newroz wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Al Karkh 1+ goals
71%
Al Karkh 2+ goals
35%
Al Karkh 3+ goals
13%
Newroz 1+ goals
71%
Newroz 2+ goals
35%
Newroz 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Al Karkh (draw refunded)
50%
Newroz (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Karkh at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.22 · 36 matches

Newroz away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.27 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Karkh attack 1.19 + Newroz defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.23

Newroz attack 1.23 + Al Karkh defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Al Karkh scores more
36%
level
27%
Newroz scores more
36%

Al Karkh at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Al Karkh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'
Y. Hamoud
45'
Y. Hamoud
52'
A. Qasim Yousef

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Iraqi League: Al Karkh 3–0 Newroz

Al Karkh beat Newroz 3-0 in Iraqi League on January 22, 2026.

Goals: Y. Hamoud (35', 45'), A. Qasim Yousef (52').