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Newroz vs Al Kahrabaa — Iraqi League 2025

Newroz
Newroz
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Al Kahrabaa
Al Kahrabaa
A. Rostam 90' (pen)
M. Ridha Jalil 88'
G. Laura 5'
A. Montather 90'
L. Esquerdinha 78'
9/13/2025Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 1Nowruz Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Newroz47%
×Draw27%
Al Kahrabaa26%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Newroz
1.41
Al Kahrabaa
0.96

Newroz creates 47% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 27 away

creates per match

Newroz
1.22
Al Kahrabaa
0.96

allows per match

Newroz
0.96
Al Kahrabaa
1.59

finishing

Newroz+0.00on par
Al Kahrabaa+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Newroz ↓

Al Kahrabaa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Newroz or draw
74%
Newroz or Al Kahrabaa
73%
Draw or Al Kahrabaa
53%

Winning margin

Newroz wins by 2+
23%
Al Kahrabaa wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Newroz 1+ goals
76%
Newroz 2+ goals
41%
Newroz 3+ goals
17%
Al Kahrabaa 1+ goals
62%
Al Kahrabaa 2+ goals
25%
Al Kahrabaa 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Newroz (draw refunded)
65%
Al Kahrabaa (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Newroz at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.96 · 27 matches

Al Kahrabaa away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.59 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Newroz attack 1.22 + Al Kahrabaa defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.41

Al Kahrabaa attack 0.96 + Newroz defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Newroz scores more
47%
level
27%
Al Kahrabaa scores more
26%

Newroz at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Newroz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'
G. Laura
78'
L. Esquerdinha
88'
M. Ridha Jalil
90'
A. RostamPenalty
90'
A. Montather
Newroz
Al
J. Tsombos
Manager: J. Tsombos
Luay Salah
Manager: Luay Salah

Iraqi League: Newroz 3–2 Al Kahrabaa

Newroz beat Al Kahrabaa 3-2 in Iraqi League on September 13, 2025.

Goals: G. Laura (5'), L. Esquerdinha (78'), M. Ridha Jalil (88'), A. Rostam (90' pen), A. Montather (90').

The match was played at Nowruz Stadium in as-Sulaimāniyya (Sulaymaniyah).