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Al Kahrabaa vs Newroz — Iraqi League 2025

Al Kahrabaa
Al Kahrabaa
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Newroz
Newroz
Amir Jaleel 15'
Marwan Hussein 81'
7/5/2024Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 37Al-Zawraa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Al Kahrabaa37%
×Draw27%
Newroz36%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Kahrabaa
1.22
Newroz
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 35 home / 30 away

creates per match

Al Kahrabaa
1.17
Newroz
1.23

allows per match

Al Kahrabaa
1.20
Newroz
1.27

finishing

Al Kahrabaa+0.00on par
Newroz+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Kahrabaa ↓

Newroz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Al Kahrabaa or draw
64%
Al Kahrabaa or Newroz
73%
Draw or Newroz
63%

Winning margin

Al Kahrabaa wins by 2+
16%
Newroz wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Al Kahrabaa 1+ goals
70%
Al Kahrabaa 2+ goals
34%
Al Kahrabaa 3+ goals
12%
Newroz 1+ goals
70%
Newroz 2+ goals
34%
Newroz 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Al Kahrabaa (draw refunded)
50%
Newroz (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Kahrabaa at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.20 · 35 matches

Newroz away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.27 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Kahrabaa attack 1.17 + Newroz defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.22

Newroz attack 1.23 + Al Kahrabaa defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Al Kahrabaa scores more
37%
level
27%
Newroz scores more
36%

Al Kahrabaa at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Al Kahrabaa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'
Amir Jaleel
81'
Marwan Hussein

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Kahrabaa vs Newroz

Al Kahrabaa and Newroz drew 1-1 in Iraqi League on July 5, 2024.

Goals: Amir Jaleel (15'), Marwan Hussein (81').

The match was played at Al-Zawraa Stadium in Bagdad.