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Newroz vs Al Kahrabaa — Iraqi League 2020

Newroz
Newroz
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Al Kahrabaa
Al Kahrabaa
12/9/2022Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 9Al-Zawraa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Newroz42%
×Draw27%
Al Kahrabaa30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Newroz
1.35
Al Kahrabaa
1.10

Newroz creates 23% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 108 away

creates per match

Newroz
1.45
Al Kahrabaa
1.03

allows per match

Newroz
1.18
Al Kahrabaa
1.26

finishing

Newroz+0.00on par
Al Kahrabaa+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Newroz ↓

Al Kahrabaa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Newroz or draw
70%
Newroz or Al Kahrabaa
73%
Draw or Al Kahrabaa
58%

Winning margin

Newroz wins by 2+
20%
Al Kahrabaa wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Newroz 1+ goals
74%
Newroz 2+ goals
39%
Newroz 3+ goals
15%
Al Kahrabaa 1+ goals
67%
Al Kahrabaa 2+ goals
30%
Al Kahrabaa 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Newroz (draw refunded)
58%
Al Kahrabaa (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Newroz at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.18 · 76 matches

Al Kahrabaa away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.26 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Newroz attack 1.45 + Al Kahrabaa defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.35

Al Kahrabaa attack 1.03 + Newroz defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Newroz scores more
42%
level
27%
Al Kahrabaa scores more
30%

Newroz at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Newroz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Newroz vs Al Kahrabaa

Al Kahrabaa beat Newroz 2-1 in Iraqi League on December 9, 2022.

The match was played at Al-Zawraa Stadium in Bagdad.