Newport County 0–3 Cheltenham: Result & Stats

Newport County

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Cheltenham

E. Archer 82'

E. Williams 53'

M. Taylor 30'

2/22/2025

League Two · Round 33Rodney Parade

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Newport County42%

×Draw28%

Cheltenham30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Newport CountyExpected goals in this matchCheltenham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.06

Newport County

1.30

Cheltenham

1.06

Newport County creates 23% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 9 away

1.24

creates per match

1.05

1.07

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Newport County

1.24

Cheltenham

1.05

allows per match

Newport County

1.07

Cheltenham

1.36

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

-0.05on par

finishing

Newport County-0.10scores less

Cheltenham-0.05on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Newport County ↓

Cheltenham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Newport County or draw

70%

Newport County or Cheltenham

72%

Draw or Cheltenham

58%

Winning margin

Newport County wins by 2+

19%

Cheltenham wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Newport County 1+ goals

73%

Newport County 2+ goals

37%

Newport County 3+ goals

14%

Cheltenham 1+ goals

65%

Cheltenham 2+ goals

29%

Cheltenham 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Newport County (draw refunded)

58%

Cheltenham (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Newport County at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.07 · 7 matches

Cheltenham away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.36 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Newport County attack 1.24 + Cheltenham defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.30

Cheltenham attack 1.05 + Newport County defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Newport County scores more

42%

level

28%

Cheltenham scores more

30%

Newport County at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Newport County will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

E. Williams

Cheltenham · M

8.2

Match Events

30'

M. Taylor↳ E. Williams

44'

Courtney Baker-Richardson

53'

E. Williams

56'

O. Greaves← C. Evans

57'

K. Whitmore← J. Martin

70'

S. Bennett← M. Taylor

70'

L. Kinsella← E. Williams

71'

G. Bony← J. Thomas

75'

Ethon Archer

82'

E. Archer

83'

Courtney Baker-Richardson

83'

Courtney Baker-Richardson

85'

Bobby Kamwa

89'

L. Dulson← A. Hay

89'

G. Miller← D. Power

90'

T. Dieng← L. Young

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NewportCheltenham

Overview

50%Possession50%

11Total Shots10

5Corners5

19Fouls17

Shots

11Total Shots10

2On Target4

5Off Target3

4Blocked3

7Inside Box7

4Outside Box3

Passing

50%Possession50%

326Total Passes329

188Accurate Passes204

58%Pass Accuracy62%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

19Fouls17

3Yellow Cards1

1Red Cards0

1Offsides2

League Two: Newport County 0–3 Cheltenham

Cheltenham beat Newport County 3-0 in League Two on February 22, 2025.

Goals: M. Taylor (30'), E. Williams (53'), E. Archer (82').

Newport County controlled possession (50%) and registered 11 shots to 10.

The match was played at Rodney Parade in Casnewydd.

Newport County vs Cheltenham — League Two 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

League Two: Newport County 0–3 Cheltenham