Cheltenham 3–2 Newport County: Result & Stats

Cheltenham

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 2

Newport County

J. Colwill 90+6', 22'

L. Dulson 27'

O. Greaves 43'

C. Baker-Richardson 31' (pen)

8/10/2024

League Two · Round 1EV Charger Points Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Cheltenham45%

×Draw24%

Newport County30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CheltenhamExpected goals in this matchNewport County

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.29

Cheltenham

1.63

Newport County

1.29

Cheltenham creates 26% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

1.13

creates per match

1.11

1.47

allows per match

2.12

creates per match

Cheltenham

1.13

Newport County

1.11

allows per match

Cheltenham

1.47

Newport County

2.12

+0.14scores more than expected

finishing

-0.29scores less than expected

finishing

Cheltenham+0.14scores more

Newport County-0.29scores less

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cheltenham ↓

Newport County →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Cheltenham or draw

70%

Cheltenham or Newport County

76%

Draw or Newport County

55%

Winning margin

Cheltenham wins by 2+

23%

Newport County wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Cheltenham 1+ goals

80%

Cheltenham 2+ goals

48%

Cheltenham 3+ goals

22%

Newport County 1+ goals

72%

Newport County 2+ goals

37%

Newport County 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Cheltenham (draw refunded)

60%

Newport County (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cheltenham at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.47 · 11 matches

Newport County away — creates 1.11, concedes 2.12 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cheltenham attack 1.13 + Newport County defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.63

Newport County attack 1.11 + Cheltenham defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Cheltenham scores more

45%

level

24%

Newport County scores more

30%

Cheltenham at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Cheltenham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

J. Colwill

Cheltenham · M

8.5

Match Events

14'

Ciaran Brennan

22'

J. Colwill

27'

L. Dulson↳ R. Bowman

31'

C. Baker-RichardsonPenalty

33'

43'

60'

62'

62'

T. Pett← H. Sohna

63'

E. Archer← L. Kinsella

64'

N. Wood← O. Greaves

65'

K. Whitmore← C. Antwi

72'

J. Thomas← R. Haynes

78'

L. Jephcott← B. Kamwa

80'

Courtney Baker-Richardson

85'

G. Miller← R. Bowman

85'

H. Kargbo← C. Baker-Richardson

90+6'

J. Colwill↳ E. Archer

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CheltenhamNewport

Overview

48%Possession52%

16Total Shots11

4Corners6

13Fouls8

Shots

16Total Shots11

5On Target6

6Off Target3

5Blocked2

11Inside Box8

5Outside Box3

Passing

48%Possession52%

304Total Passes340

204Accurate Passes234

67%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

13Fouls8

1Yellow Cards3

4Offsides2