Newport County vs Bristol Rovers

Newport County

Preview

15:00

Bristol Rovers

3/13/2027

League Two · Round 35Rodney Parade

Big match

37%

Newport County

model favours

37%28%35%

Bristol Rovers score first in only 27% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

57%

under 2.5 goals

49%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Newport County37%

×Draw28%

Bristol Rovers35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Newport CountyExpected goals in this matchBristol Rovers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.18

Newport County

1.23

Bristol Rovers

1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 10 away

1.24

creates per match

1.28

1.07

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Newport County

1.24

Bristol Rovers

1.28

allows per match

Newport County

1.07

Bristol Rovers

1.21

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

-0.18scores less than expected

finishing

Newport County-0.10scores less

Bristol Rovers-0.18scores less

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Newport County ↓

Bristol Rovers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Newport County or draw

65%

Newport County or Bristol Rovers

72%

Draw or Bristol Rovers

63%

Winning margin

Newport County wins by 2+

16%

Bristol Rovers wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Newport County 1+ goals

71%

Newport County 2+ goals

35%

Newport County 3+ goals

13%

Bristol Rovers 1+ goals

69%

Bristol Rovers 2+ goals

33%

Bristol Rovers 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Newport County (draw refunded)

52%

Bristol Rovers (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Newport County at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.07 · 7 matches

Bristol Rovers away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.21 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Newport County attack 1.24 + Bristol Rovers defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.23

Bristol Rovers attack 1.28 + Newport County defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Newport County scores more

37%

level

28%

Bristol Rovers scores more

35%

Newport County at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Newport County will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Both teams score in 82% of Bristol Rovers’s matches
Newport County score first in only 30% of matches
73% of Bristol Rovers’s matches go over 2.5 goals
Both sides lean high-scoring (60% and 73% over 2.5)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles

Newport County

Balanced

Bristol Rovers

Defensively solid

49%PossessionBiggest gap51%

67%Pass accuracy66%

11.6Shots11.5

1.16xG1.21

Newport CountyBristol Rovers

Head-to-head

6 previous meetings

2

Newport County

1

Draws

3

Bristol Rovers

Avg goals: 2.7BTTS: 50%

0–32–30–11–03–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form

County

DLWWW

Rovers

DDLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff