Newport County 2–3 Bristol Rovers: Result & Stats

Newport County

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Bristol Rovers

N. Opoku 89'

K. Whitmore 78'

E. Harrison 72'

L. Thomas 59', 52'

9/6/2025

League Two · Round 7Rodney Parade

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Newport County35%

×Draw26%

Bristol Rovers39%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Newport CountyExpected goals in this matchBristol Rovers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.35

Newport County

1.28

Bristol Rovers

1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 31 home / 26 away

1.06

creates per match

1.12

1.58

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Newport County

1.06

Bristol Rovers

1.12

allows per match

Newport County

1.58

Bristol Rovers

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Newport County+0.00on par

Bristol Rovers+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Newport County ↓

Bristol Rovers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Newport County or draw

61%

Newport County or Bristol Rovers

74%

Draw or Bristol Rovers

65%

Winning margin

Newport County wins by 2+

15%

Bristol Rovers wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Newport County 1+ goals

72%

Newport County 2+ goals

37%

Newport County 3+ goals

14%

Bristol Rovers 1+ goals

74%

Bristol Rovers 2+ goals

39%

Bristol Rovers 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Newport County (draw refunded)

48%

Bristol Rovers (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Newport County at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.58 · 31 matches

Bristol Rovers away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.50 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Newport County attack 1.06 + Bristol Rovers defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.28

Bristol Rovers attack 1.12 + Newport County defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Newport County scores more

35%

level

26%

Bristol Rovers scores more

39%

Bristol Rovers at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Bristol Rovers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

L. Thomas

Bristol Rovers · F

8.2

Match Events

34'

52'

56'

59'

64'

K. Whitmore← C. Evans

64'

N. Opoku← M. Baker

67'

E. Harrison← F. Cavegn

68'

Josh McEachran

71'

M. Spellman← M. Reindorf

72'

E. Harrison↳ A. Chang

77'

R. Sotiriou← L. Thomas

78'

K. Whitmore↳ N. Opoku

82'

J. Senior← M. Southam-Hales

82'

C. Mola← A. Chang

86'

C. Antwi← S. Braybrooke

86'

G. Garner← C. Brennan

89'

N. Opoku

90+5'

Promise Omochere

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NewportBristol

Overview

47%Possession53%

10Total Shots12

1Corners3

16Fouls15

Shots

10Total Shots12

5On Target4

1Off Target5

4Blocked3

8Inside Box8

2Outside Box4

Passing

47%Possession53%

257Total Passes298

160Accurate Passes202

62%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

16Fouls15

1Yellow Cards3

2Offsides4