Bristol Rovers 1–3 Newport County: Result & Stats

Bristol Rovers

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Newport County

B. Pitman 45+2'

D. Telford 61', 31'

C. Baker-Richardson 27'

10/23/2021

League Two · Round 14Memorial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Bristol Rovers47%

×Draw25%

Newport County28%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bristol RoversExpected goals in this matchNewport County

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.19

Bristol Rovers

1.60

Newport County

1.19

Bristol Rovers creates 34% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 30 away

1.36

creates per match

1.10

1.28

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Bristol Rovers

1.36

Newport County

1.10

allows per match

Bristol Rovers

1.28

Newport County

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bristol Rovers+0.00on par

Newport County+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bristol Rovers ↓

Newport County →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Bristol Rovers or draw

72%

Bristol Rovers or Newport County

75%

Draw or Newport County

53%

Winning margin

Bristol Rovers wins by 2+

24%

Newport County wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Bristol Rovers 1+ goals

80%

Bristol Rovers 2+ goals

47%

Bristol Rovers 3+ goals

22%

Newport County 1+ goals

70%

Newport County 2+ goals

33%

Newport County 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Bristol Rovers (draw refunded)

62%

Newport County (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bristol Rovers at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.28 · 25 matches

Newport County away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.83 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bristol Rovers attack 1.36 + Newport County defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.60

Newport County attack 1.10 + Bristol Rovers defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Bristol Rovers scores more

47%

level

25%

Newport County scores more

28%

Bristol Rovers at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Bristol Rovers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

D. Telford

Newport County · F

8.2

Match Events

16'

F. Azaz← M. Dolan

27'

C. Baker-Richardson↳ J. Cain

31'

39'

45+2'

61'

69'

P. Coutts← H. Anderson

69'

Z. Westbrooke← A. Collins

69'

S. Finley← G. Whelan

72'

Robbie Willmott

79'

K. Ellison← D. Telford

86'

Sam Finley

86'

Courtney Baker-Richardson

87'

T. Abraham← C. Baker-Richardson

90+2'

Timmy Abraham

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BristolNewport

Overview

58%Possession42%

12Total Shots14

6Corners4

9Fouls16

Shots

12Total Shots14

3On Target8

6Off Target3

3Blocked3

8Inside Box11

4Outside Box3

Passing

58%Possession42%

411Total Passes298

279Accurate Passes190

68%Pass Accuracy64%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

9Fouls16

1Yellow Cards4

2Offsides0