Newport County 3–1 Accrington ST: Result & Stats

Newport County

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Accrington ST

A. Wildig 63'

C. Baker-Richardson 52' (pen)

S. Quirk 12' (OG)

S. Whalley 38'

8/24/2024

League Two · Round 3Rodney Parade

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Newport County43%

×Draw28%

Accrington ST28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Newport CountyExpected goals in this matchAccrington ST

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

0.96

Newport County

1.27

Accrington ST

0.96

Newport County creates 32% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 8 away

1.24

creates per match

0.84

1.07

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Newport County

1.24

Accrington ST

0.84

allows per match

Newport County

1.07

Accrington ST

1.29

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

-0.34scores less than expected

finishing

Newport County-0.10scores less

Accrington ST-0.34scores less

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Newport County ↓

Accrington ST →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Newport County or draw

72%

Newport County or Accrington ST

72%

Draw or Accrington ST

57%

Winning margin

Newport County wins by 2+

20%

Accrington ST wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Newport County 1+ goals

72%

Newport County 2+ goals

36%

Newport County 3+ goals

14%

Accrington ST 1+ goals

62%

Accrington ST 2+ goals

25%

Accrington ST 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Newport County (draw refunded)

61%

Accrington ST (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Newport County at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.07 · 7 matches

Accrington ST away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.29 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Newport County attack 1.24 + Accrington ST defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.27

Accrington ST attack 0.84 + Newport County defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Newport County scores more

43%

level

28%

Accrington ST scores more

28%

Newport County at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Newport County will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24

A. Wildig

Newport County · M

7.5

Match Events

12'

S. QuirkOwn goal

29'

James Clarke

38'

S. Whalley↳ D. Love

46'

N. Khumbeni← C. OBrien

52'

C. Baker-RichardsonPenalty

54'

60'

63'

74'

82'

K. Rai← B. Kamwa

88'

B. Woods← T. Walton

89'

L. Jephcott← C. Baker-Richardson

89'

K. Evans← A. Wildig

89'

L. Coyle← S. Conneely

90+6'

Nelson Khumbeni

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NewportAccrington

Overview

43%Possession57%

6Total Shots18

2Corners7

9Fouls13

Shots

6Total Shots18

2On Target7

4Off Target7

0Blocked4

6Inside Box9

0Outside Box9

Passing

43%Possession57%

318Total Passes413

214Accurate Passes328

67%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

5Saves0

Discipline

9Fouls13

2Yellow Cards1

1Offsides2