Newport County 1–3 Accrington ST: Result & Stats

Newport County

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Accrington ST

B. Morris 13'

J. Pritchard 67'

T. Leigh 46'

A. Henderson 22'

4/9/2024

League Two · Round 27Rodney Parade

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Newport County48%

×Draw26%

Accrington ST26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Newport CountyExpected goals in this matchAccrington ST

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.03

Newport County

1.50

Accrington ST

1.03

Newport County creates 46% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 10 away

1.31

creates per match

0.90

1.16

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Newport County

1.31

Accrington ST

0.90

allows per match

Newport County

1.16

Accrington ST

1.69

-0.31scores less than expected

finishing

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

Newport County-0.31scores less

Accrington ST-0.10scores less

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Newport County ↓

Accrington ST →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Newport County or draw

74%

Newport County or Accrington ST

74%

Draw or Accrington ST

52%

Winning margin

Newport County wins by 2+

24%

Accrington ST wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Newport County 1+ goals

78%

Newport County 2+ goals

44%

Newport County 3+ goals

19%

Accrington ST 1+ goals

64%

Accrington ST 2+ goals

28%

Accrington ST 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Newport County (draw refunded)

65%

Accrington ST (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Newport County at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.16 · 8 matches

Accrington ST away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.69 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Newport County attack 1.31 + Accrington ST defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.50

Accrington ST attack 0.90 + Newport County defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Newport County scores more

48%

level

26%

Accrington ST scores more

26%

Newport County at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Newport County will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

J. Nolan

Accrington ST · M

8.3

Match Events

13'

B. Morris↳ H. Charsley

22'

A. Henderson↳ J. Nolan

45'

Matthew Bondswell

45+4'

W. Evans← M. Bondswell

46'

O. Zanzala← O. Bogle

46'

T. Leigh↳ B. Woods

66'

J. Pritchard← A. Henderson

66'

D. Martin← S. Conneely

66'

M. Lowe← T. Leigh

67'

J. Pritchard↳ S. Whalley

83'

J. Norris← H. Charsley

83'

L. Jephcott← S. Bennett

88'

S. Quirk← J. Gubbins

90+8'

Kyle Jameson

90+6'

Adam Lewis

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NewportAccrington

Overview

53%Possession47%

8Total Shots18

3Corners1

12Fouls9

Shots

8Total Shots18

2On Target6

2Off Target8

4Blocked4

2Inside Box13

6Outside Box5

Passing

53%Possession47%

420Total Passes365

267Accurate Passes218

64%Pass Accuracy60%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

12Fouls9

2Yellow Cards0

1Red Cards0

2Offsides1