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Newington Youth vs Dollingstown — League #561 2026

Newington Youth
Newington Youth
FT
1 – 0
Dollingstown
Dollingstown
3/26/2022League #561League #561 · Round 20Solitude

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Newington Youth61%
×Draw19%
Dollingstown20%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Newington Youth
2.37
Dollingstown
1.31

Newington Youth creates 81% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 18 away

creates per match

Newington Youth
3.17
Dollingstown
1.61

allows per match

Newington Youth
1.00
Dollingstown
1.56

finishing

Newington Youth+0.00on par
Dollingstown+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Newington Youth ↓

Dollingstown →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Newington Youth or draw
80%
Newington Youth or Dollingstown
81%
Draw or Dollingstown
39%

Winning margin

Newington Youth wins by 2+
39%
Dollingstown wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Newington Youth 1+ goals
91%
Newington Youth 2+ goals
68%
Newington Youth 3+ goals
42%
Dollingstown 1+ goals
73%
Dollingstown 2+ goals
38%
Dollingstown 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Newington Youth (draw refunded)
75%
Dollingstown (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Newington Youth at home — creates 3.17, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

Dollingstown away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.56 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Newington Youth attack 3.17 + Dollingstown defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 2.37

Dollingstown attack 1.61 + Newington Youth defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Newington Youth scores more
61%
level
19%
Dollingstown scores more
20%

Newington Youth at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Newington Youth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #561: Newington Youth 1–0 Dollingstown

Newington Youth beat Dollingstown 1-0 in League #561 on March 26, 2022.

The match was played at Solitude in Belfast.