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Dollingstown vs Newington Youth — League #561 2026

Dollingstown
Dollingstown
FT
0 – 1
Newington Youth
Newington Youth
9/18/2021League #561League #561 · Round 5Planters Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Dollingstown39%
×Draw22%
Newington Youth39%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dollingstown
1.85
Newington Youth
1.85

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 20 home / 20 away

creates per match

Dollingstown
2.15
Newington Youth
1.90

allows per match

Dollingstown
1.80
Newington Youth
1.55

finishing

Dollingstown+0.00on par
Newington Youth+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dollingstown ↓

Newington Youth →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Dollingstown or draw
61%
Dollingstown or Newington Youth
78%
Draw or Newington Youth
61%

Winning margin

Dollingstown wins by 2+
21%
Newington Youth wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Dollingstown 1+ goals
84%
Dollingstown 2+ goals
55%
Dollingstown 3+ goals
28%
Newington Youth 1+ goals
84%
Newington Youth 2+ goals
55%
Newington Youth 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Dollingstown (draw refunded)
50%
Newington Youth (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dollingstown at home — creates 2.15, concedes 1.80 · 20 matches

Newington Youth away — creates 1.90, concedes 1.55 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dollingstown attack 2.15 + Newington Youth defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.85

Newington Youth attack 1.90 + Dollingstown defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Dollingstown scores more
39%
level
22%
Newington Youth scores more
39%

Dollingstown at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Dollingstown will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #561: Dollingstown 0–1 Newington Youth

Newington Youth beat Dollingstown 1-0 in League #561 on September 18, 2021.

The match was played at Planters Park in Lurgan.