Newington Youth 1–0 Annagh United: Result & Stats

Newington Youth

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Annagh United

3/27/2026

League #407

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Newington Youth38%

×Draw24%

Annagh United38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Newington YouthExpected goals in this matchAnnagh United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.49

Newington Youth

1.48

Annagh United

1.49

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 18 away

1.80

creates per match

1.28

1.70

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Newington Youth

1.80

Annagh United

1.28

allows per match

Newington Youth

1.70

Annagh United

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Newington Youth+0.00on par

Annagh United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Newington Youth ↓

Annagh United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Newington Youth or draw

62%

Newington Youth or Annagh United

76%

Draw or Annagh United

62%

Winning margin

Newington Youth wins by 2+

18%

Annagh United wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Newington Youth 1+ goals

77%

Newington Youth 2+ goals

43%

Newington Youth 3+ goals

19%

Annagh United 1+ goals

77%

Annagh United 2+ goals

44%

Annagh United 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Newington Youth (draw refunded)

50%

Annagh United (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Newington Youth at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.70 · 10 matches

Annagh United away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.17 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Newington Youth attack 1.80 + Annagh United defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.48

Annagh United attack 1.28 + Newington Youth defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Newington Youth scores more

38%

level

24%

Annagh United scores more

38%

Newington Youth at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Newington Youth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff