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Annagh United vs Newington Youth — League #407 2026

Annagh United
Annagh United
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Newington Youth
Newington Youth
1/24/2026League #407League #407

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Annagh United50%
×Draw22%
Newington Youth28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Annagh United
1.90
Newington Youth
1.38

Annagh United creates 38% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 13 away

creates per match

Annagh United
1.89
Newington Youth
1.54

allows per match

Annagh United
1.21
Newington Youth
1.92

finishing

Annagh United+0.00on par
Newington Youth+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Annagh United ↓

Newington Youth →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Annagh United or draw
72%
Annagh United or Newington Youth
78%
Draw or Newington Youth
50%

Winning margin

Annagh United wins by 2+
28%
Newington Youth wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Annagh United 1+ goals
85%
Annagh United 2+ goals
56%
Annagh United 3+ goals
29%
Newington Youth 1+ goals
75%
Newington Youth 2+ goals
40%
Newington Youth 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Annagh United (draw refunded)
64%
Newington Youth (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Annagh United at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.21 · 19 matches

Newington Youth away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.92 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Annagh United attack 1.89 + Newington Youth defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.90

Newington Youth attack 1.54 + Annagh United defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Annagh United scores more
50%
level
22%
Newington Youth scores more
28%

Annagh United at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Annagh United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Annagh United vs Newington Youth

Annagh United beat Newington Youth 3-2 in League #407 on January 24, 2026.