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Newell's Old Boys Res. vs Defensa y Justicia Res. — Reserve League 2022

Newell's Old Boys Res.
Newell's Old Boys Res.
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Defensa y Justicia Res.
Defensa y Justicia Res.
8/20/2024Reserve LeagueReserve League · 2nd Phase - 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Newell's Old Boys Res.49%
×Draw27%
Defensa y Justicia Res.24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Newell's Old Boys Res.
1.43
Defensa y Justicia Res.
0.91

Newell's Old Boys Res. creates 57% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 63 away

creates per match

Newell's Old Boys Res.
1.56
Defensa y Justicia Res.
0.98

allows per match

Newell's Old Boys Res.
0.84
Defensa y Justicia Res.
1.29

finishing

Newell's Old Boys Res.+0.00on par
Defensa y Justicia Res.+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Newell's Old Boys Res. ↓

Defensa y Justicia Res. →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Newell's Old Boys Res. or draw
76%
Newell's Old Boys Res. or Defensa y Justicia Res.
73%
Draw or Defensa y Justicia Res.
51%

Winning margin

Newell's Old Boys Res. wins by 2+
24%
Defensa y Justicia Res. wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Newell's Old Boys Res. 1+ goals
76%
Newell's Old Boys Res. 2+ goals
42%
Newell's Old Boys Res. 3+ goals
17%
Defensa y Justicia Res. 1+ goals
60%
Defensa y Justicia Res. 2+ goals
23%
Defensa y Justicia Res. 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Newell's Old Boys Res. (draw refunded)
67%
Defensa y Justicia Res. (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Newell's Old Boys Res. at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.84 · 63 matches

Defensa y Justicia Res. away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.29 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Newell's Old Boys Res. attack 1.56 + Defensa y Justicia Res. defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.43

Defensa y Justicia Res. attack 0.98 + Newell's Old Boys Res. defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Newell's Old Boys Res. scores more
49%
level
27%
Defensa y Justicia Res. scores more
24%

Newell's Old Boys Res. at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Newell's Old Boys Res. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Newell's Old Boys Res. 2 – 0 Defensa y Justicia Res.

Newell's Old Boys Res. beat Defensa y Justicia Res. 2-0 in Reserve League on August 20, 2024.