Defensa y Justicia Res. 2–3 Newell's Old Boys Res.

Defensa y Justicia Res.

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 3

Newell's Old Boys Res.

8/13/2025

Reserve League · 2nd Phase - 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Defensa y Justicia Res.44%

×Draw26%

Newell's Old Boys Res.29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Defensa y Justicia Res.Expected goals in this matchNewell's Old Boys Res.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.10

Defensa y Justicia Res.

1.42

Newell's Old Boys Res.

1.10

Defensa y Justicia Res. creates 29% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 65 away

1.47

creates per match

1.17

1.03

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Defensa y Justicia Res.

1.47

Newell's Old Boys Res.

1.17

allows per match

Defensa y Justicia Res.

1.03

Newell's Old Boys Res.

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Defensa y Justicia Res.+0.00on par

Newell's Old Boys Res.+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Defensa y Justicia Res. ↓

Newell's Old Boys Res. →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Defensa y Justicia Res. or draw

71%

Defensa y Justicia Res. or Newell's Old Boys Res.

74%

Draw or Newell's Old Boys Res.

56%

Winning margin

Defensa y Justicia Res. wins by 2+

21%

Newell's Old Boys Res. wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Defensa y Justicia Res. 1+ goals

76%

Defensa y Justicia Res. 2+ goals

41%

Defensa y Justicia Res. 3+ goals

17%

Newell's Old Boys Res. 1+ goals

67%

Newell's Old Boys Res. 2+ goals

30%

Newell's Old Boys Res. 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Defensa y Justicia Res. (draw refunded)

60%

Newell's Old Boys Res. (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Defensa y Justicia Res. at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.03 · 60 matches

Newell's Old Boys Res. away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.37 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Defensa y Justicia Res. attack 1.47 + Newell's Old Boys Res. defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.42

Newell's Old Boys Res. attack 1.17 + Defensa y Justicia Res. defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Defensa y Justicia Res. scores more

44%

level

26%

Newell's Old Boys Res. scores more

29%

Defensa y Justicia Res. at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Defensa y Justicia Res. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff