Newcastle 2–4 West Ham: Result & Stats

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NewcastleExpected goals in this matchWest Ham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.95

1.26

Newcastle

1.95

West Ham

1.26

Newcastle creates 55% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 35 away

2.04

creates per match

1.06

1.46

allows per match

1.85

creates per match

Newcastle

2.04

West Ham

1.06

allows per match

Newcastle

1.46

West Ham

1.85

+0.00on par

finishing

-0.09on par

finishing

Newcastle+0.00on par

West Ham-0.09on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Newcastle ↓

West Ham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Newcastle or draw

75%

Newcastle or West Ham

78%

Draw or West Ham

47%

Winning margin

Newcastle wins by 2+

31%

West Ham wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Newcastle 1+ goals

86%

Newcastle 2+ goals

58%

Newcastle 3+ goals

31%

West Ham 1+ goals

72%

West Ham 2+ goals

36%

West Ham 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Newcastle (draw refunded)

68%

West Ham (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Newcastle at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.46 · 24 matches

West Ham away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.85 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Newcastle attack 2.04 + West Ham defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.95

West Ham attack 1.06 + Newcastle defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Newcastle scores more

53%

level

22%

West Ham scores more

25%

Newcastle at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Newcastle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

A. Saint-Maximin

Newcastle · F

7.9

Match Events

5'

C. Wilson↳ A. Saint-Maximin

18'

Aaron CresswellGoal confirmed

18'

A. Cresswell↳ Pablo Fornals

40'

J. Murphy↳ M. Ritchie

51'

Jonjo Shelvey

53'

S. Benrahma↳ M. Antonio

63'

T. Souček

66'

M. Antonio↳ S. Benrahma

70'

R. Fraser← J. Shelvey

84'

S. Longstaff← E. Krafth

85'

Joelinton← C. Wilson

88'

R. Fredericks← S. Benrahma

90'

A. Yarmolenko← J. Bowen

90+3'

B. Johnson← M. Antonio

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NewcastleWest

Overview

46%Possession54%

17Total Shots18

7Corners6

4Fouls3

Shots

17Total Shots18

3On Target9

7Off Target4

7Blocked5

9Inside Box12

8Outside Box6

Passing

46%Possession54%

401Total Passes473

340Accurate Passes405

85%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

Discipline

4Fouls3

1Yellow Cards0

1Offsides2