Newcastle 3–2 West Ham: Result & Stats

Newcastle

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

West Ham

J. Willock 82'

Joelinton 41'

I. Diop 36' (OG)

J. Lingard 80' (pen)

I. Diop 73'

4/17/2021

Premier League · Round 32St. James' Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 26+ matches

Newcastle55%

×Draw22%

West Ham23%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NewcastleExpected goals in this matchWest Ham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.99

1.22

Newcastle

1.99

West Ham

1.22

Newcastle creates 63% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 35 away

2.13

creates per match

1.06

1.38

allows per match

1.85

creates per match

Newcastle

2.13

West Ham

1.06

allows per match

Newcastle

1.38

West Ham

1.85

-0.13scores less than expected

finishing

-0.09on par

finishing

Newcastle-0.13scores less

West Ham-0.09on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Newcastle ↓

West Ham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Newcastle or draw

77%

Newcastle or West Ham

78%

Draw or West Ham

45%

Winning margin

Newcastle wins by 2+

32%

West Ham wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Newcastle 1+ goals

86%

Newcastle 2+ goals

59%

Newcastle 3+ goals

32%

West Ham 1+ goals

70%

West Ham 2+ goals

34%

West Ham 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Newcastle (draw refunded)

70%

West Ham (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Newcastle at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.38 · 26 matches

West Ham away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.85 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Newcastle attack 2.13 + West Ham defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.99

West Ham attack 1.06 + Newcastle defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Newcastle scores more

55%

level

22%

West Ham scores more

23%

Newcastle at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Newcastle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

31

B. Johnson

West Ham · M

8.0

Match Events

12'

16'

36'

36'

36'

I. DiopOwn goal

41'

Joelinton

64'

C. Wilson← A. Saint-Maximin

73'

I. Diop↳ J. Bowen

75'

S. Benrahma← M. Noble

77'

Vladimír CoufalGoal cancelled

80'

J. Willock← S. Longstaff

80'

J. LingardPenalty

82'

J. Willock↳ M. Ritchie

87'

M. Lanzini← J. Lingard

90'

Jacob Murphy

90+8'

A. Carroll← Joelinton

90+5'

R. Fredericks← B. Johnson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NewcastleWest

Overview

34%Possession66%

16Total Shots16

3Corners8

9Fouls7

Shots

16Total Shots16

8On Target6

1Off Target4

7Blocked6

7Inside Box8

9Outside Box8

Passing

34%Possession66%

272Total Passes510

204Accurate Passes432

75%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

4Saves4

Discipline

9Fouls7

2Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards1

2Offsides0

Match Recap: Newcastle vs West Ham

Newcastle beat West Ham 3-2 in Premier League on April 17, 2021.

Goals: I. Diop (36' o.g., 73'), Joelinton (41'), J. Lingard (80' pen), J. Willock (82').

West Ham controlled possession (66%) and registered 16 shots to 16.

The match was played at St. James' Park in Newcastle upon Tyne.

Newcastle vs West Ham — Premier League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Newcastle vs West Ham