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Newcastle vs West Ham — Premier League 2026

Newcastle
Newcastle
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
West Ham
West Ham
J. Shelvey 67'
M. Almirón 17'
T. Souček 65'
M. Antonio 4'
7/5/2020Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 33St. James' Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 25+ matches

Newcastle54%
×Draw22%
West Ham24%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Newcastle
1.99
West Ham
1.25

Newcastle creates 59% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 35 away

creates per match

Newcastle
2.13
West Ham
1.06

allows per match

Newcastle
1.43
West Ham
1.85

finishing

Newcastle-0.05on par
West Ham-0.09on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Newcastle ↓

West Ham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Newcastle or draw
76%
Newcastle or West Ham
78%
Draw or West Ham
46%

Winning margin

Newcastle wins by 2+
32%
West Ham wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Newcastle 1+ goals
86%
Newcastle 2+ goals
59%
Newcastle 3+ goals
32%
West Ham 1+ goals
71%
West Ham 2+ goals
36%
West Ham 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Newcastle (draw refunded)
70%
West Ham (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Newcastle at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.43 · 25 matches

West Ham away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.85 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Newcastle attack 2.13 + West Ham defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.99

West Ham attack 1.06 + Newcastle defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Newcastle scores more
54%
level
22%
West Ham scores more
24%

Newcastle at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Newcastle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8
J. ShelveyNewcastleNewcastle · M
7.6

Match Events

4'
M. Antonio↳ J. Bowen
17'
M. Almirón↳ E. Krafth
37'
Dwight Gayle
43'
N. Bentaleb← I. Hayden
57'
M. Noble← M. Lanzini
65'
T. Souček
67'
J. Shelvey↳ D. Gayle
69'
V. Lazaro← A. Saint-Maximin
70'
M. Ritchie← D. Gayle
75'
A. Yarmolenko← Pablo Fornals
81'
A. Carroll← Joelinton

Possession

57%Newcastle

Shots

11Newcastle

Pass accuracy

52%Newcastle

Statistics

NewcastleWest
Overview
57%Possession43%
11Total Shots17
6Corners4
9Fouls11
Shots
11Total Shots17
4On Target7
5Off Target6
2Blocked4
5Inside Box13
6Outside Box4
Passing
57%Possession43%
516Total Passes379
423Accurate Passes291
82%Pass Accuracy77%
Goalkeeping
5Saves2
Discipline
9Fouls11
1Yellow Cards0
1Offsides1

Premier League: Newcastle 2–2 West Ham

Newcastle and West Ham drew 2-2 in Premier League on July 5, 2020.

Goals: M. Antonio (4'), M. Almirón (17'), T. Souček (65'), J. Shelvey (67').

Newcastle controlled possession (57%) and registered 11 shots to 17.

The match was played at St. James' Park in Newcastle upon Tyne.