Newcastle 0–0 Leicester: Result & Stats

Newcastle

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Leicester

5/22/2023

Premier League · Round 37St. James' Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Newcastle53%

×Draw21%

Leicester26%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NewcastleExpected goals in this matchLeicester

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.21

1.52

Newcastle

2.21

Leicester

1.52

Newcastle creates 45% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 7 away

2.13

creates per match

1.66

1.38

allows per match

2.29

creates per match

Newcastle

2.13

Leicester

1.66

allows per match

Newcastle

1.38

Leicester

2.29

-0.13scores less than expected

finishing

-0.23scores less than expected

finishing

Newcastle-0.13scores less

Leicester-0.23scores less

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Newcastle ↓

Leicester →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Newcastle or draw

74%

Newcastle or Leicester

79%

Draw or Leicester

47%

Winning margin

Newcastle wins by 2+

32%

Leicester wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Newcastle 1+ goals

89%

Newcastle 2+ goals

65%

Newcastle 3+ goals

38%

Leicester 1+ goals

78%

Leicester 2+ goals

45%

Leicester 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Newcastle (draw refunded)

67%

Leicester (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Newcastle at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.38 · 26 matches

Leicester away — creates 1.66, concedes 2.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Newcastle attack 2.13 + Leicester defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 2.21

Leicester attack 1.66 + Newcastle defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Newcastle scores more

53%

level

21%

Leicester scores more

26%

Newcastle at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Newcastle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2

K. Trippier

Newcastle · D

8.2

Match Events

8'

Bruno Guimarães

27'

Alexander Isak

46'

J. Maddison← K. Ịheanachọ

63'

P. Daka← J. Evans

63'

H. Barnes← J. Vardy

68'

A. Saint-Maximin← C. Wilson

77'

J. Murphy← E. Anderson

88'

A. Gordon← M. Almirón

89'

N. Mendy← W. Ndidi

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NewcastleLeicester

Overview

78%Possession22%

23Total Shots1

2.19Expected Goals (xG)0.09

12Corners1

9Fouls5

Shots

23Total Shots1

4On Target1

13Off Target0

6Blocked0

15Inside Box1

8Outside Box0

Passing

78%Possession22%

702Total Passes209

628Accurate Passes123

89%Pass Accuracy59%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

9Fouls5

2Yellow Cards0

1Offsides0