Newcastle 2–1 Leicester: Result & Stats

Newcastle

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Leicester

Bruno Guimarães 90+5', 30'

A. Lookman 19'

4/17/2022

Premier League · Round 33St. James' Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Newcastle45%

×Draw22%

Leicester34%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NewcastleExpected goals in this matchLeicester

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

1.71

Newcastle

2.00

Leicester

1.71

Newcastle creates 17% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 5 away

2.13

creates per match

1.98

1.43

allows per match

1.87

creates per match

Newcastle

2.13

Leicester

1.98

allows per match

Newcastle

1.43

Leicester

1.87

-0.05on par

finishing

+0.02on par

finishing

Newcastle-0.05on par

Leicester+0.02on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Newcastle ↓

Leicester →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Newcastle or draw

66%

Newcastle or Leicester

78%

Draw or Leicester

55%

Winning margin

Newcastle wins by 2+

25%

Leicester wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Newcastle 1+ goals

86%

Newcastle 2+ goals

59%

Newcastle 3+ goals

32%

Leicester 1+ goals

82%

Leicester 2+ goals

51%

Leicester 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Newcastle (draw refunded)

57%

Leicester (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Newcastle at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.43 · 25 matches

Leicester away — creates 1.98, concedes 1.87 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Newcastle attack 2.13 + Leicester defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 2.00

Leicester attack 1.98 + Newcastle defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Newcastle scores more

45%

level

22%

Leicester scores more

34%

Newcastle at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Newcastle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

39

Bruno Guimarães

Newcastle · M

8.3

Match Events

1'

Daniel Amartey

19'

A. Lookman↳ Ayoze Pérez

30'

Bruno Guimarães

32'

Bruno GuimarãesGoal confirmed

60'

J. Maddison← Ayoze Pérez

66'

H. Barnes← A. Lookman

69'

J. Willock← C. Wood

70'

J. Murphy← M. Almirón

78'

K. Ịheanachọ← P. Daka

84'

Emil Krafth

90+5'

Bruno Guimarães

90+6'

Nampalys Mendy

90+1'

D. Gayle← A. Saint-Maximin

90+5'

Bruno Guimarães

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NewcastleLeicester

Overview

31%Possession69%

16Total Shots8

3Corners5

10Fouls10

Shots

16Total Shots8

7On Target2

8Off Target2

1Blocked4

10Inside Box5

6Outside Box3

Passing

31%Possession69%

264Total Passes584

169Accurate Passes490

64%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

Discipline

10Fouls10

2Yellow Cards2

1Offsides0