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Newcastle Jets vs Melbourne Victory — A-League 2018

Newcastle Jets
Newcastle Jets
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Melbourne Victory
Melbourne Victory
2/8/2025A-LeagueA-League · Round 18McDonald Jones Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 104+ matches

Newcastle Jets40%
×Draw25%
Melbourne Victory35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Newcastle Jets
1.52
Melbourne Victory
1.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 104 home / 109 away

creates per match

Newcastle Jets
1.61
Melbourne Victory
1.36

allows per match

Newcastle Jets
1.48
Melbourne Victory
1.44

finishing

Newcastle Jets+0.00on par
Melbourne Victory+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Newcastle Jets ↓

Melbourne Victory →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Newcastle Jets or draw
65%
Newcastle Jets or Melbourne Victory
75%
Draw or Melbourne Victory
60%

Winning margin

Newcastle Jets wins by 2+
19%
Melbourne Victory wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Newcastle Jets 1+ goals
78%
Newcastle Jets 2+ goals
45%
Newcastle Jets 3+ goals
20%
Melbourne Victory 1+ goals
76%
Melbourne Victory 2+ goals
41%
Melbourne Victory 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Newcastle Jets (draw refunded)
53%
Melbourne Victory (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Newcastle Jets at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.48 · 104 matches

Melbourne Victory away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.44 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Newcastle Jets attack 1.61 + Melbourne Victory defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.52

Melbourne Victory attack 1.36 + Newcastle Jets defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Newcastle Jets scores more
40%
level
25%
Melbourne Victory scores more
35%

Newcastle Jets at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Newcastle Jets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

A-League: Newcastle Jets 3–0 Melbourne Victory

Newcastle Jets beat Melbourne Victory 3-0 in A-League on February 8, 2025.

The match was played at McDonald Jones Stadium in Newcastle.