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Melbourne Victory vs Newcastle Jets — A-League 2018

Melbourne Victory
Melbourne Victory
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Newcastle Jets
Newcastle Jets
5/4/2025A-LeagueA-League · Round 29AAMI Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 107+ matches

Melbourne Victory44%
×Draw24%
Newcastle Jets31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Melbourne Victory
1.64
Newcastle Jets
1.34

Melbourne Victory creates 22% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 107 away

creates per match

Melbourne Victory
1.61
Newcastle Jets
1.33

allows per match

Melbourne Victory
1.35
Newcastle Jets
1.67

finishing

Melbourne Victory+0.00on par
Newcastle Jets+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Melbourne Victory ↓

Newcastle Jets →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Melbourne Victory or draw
69%
Melbourne Victory or Newcastle Jets
76%
Draw or Newcastle Jets
56%

Winning margin

Melbourne Victory wins by 2+
23%
Newcastle Jets wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Melbourne Victory 1+ goals
81%
Melbourne Victory 2+ goals
49%
Melbourne Victory 3+ goals
23%
Newcastle Jets 1+ goals
74%
Newcastle Jets 2+ goals
39%
Newcastle Jets 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Melbourne Victory (draw refunded)
59%
Newcastle Jets (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Melbourne Victory at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.35 · 110 matches

Newcastle Jets away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Melbourne Victory attack 1.61 + Newcastle Jets defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.64

Newcastle Jets attack 1.33 + Melbourne Victory defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Melbourne Victory scores more
44%
level
24%
Newcastle Jets scores more
31%

Melbourne Victory at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Melbourne Victory will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

A-League: Melbourne Victory 1–1 Newcastle Jets

Melbourne Victory and Newcastle Jets drew 1-1 in A-League on May 4, 2025.

The match was played at AAMI Park in Melbourne.