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Newcastle Jets vs Melbourne Victory — Australia Cup 2021

Newcastle Jets
Newcastle Jets
Pens
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Melbourne Victory
Melbourne Victory
7/17/2023Australia CupAustralia Cup · Play-offsLarrakia Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Newcastle Jets30%
×Draw21%
Melbourne Victory49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Newcastle Jets
1.58
Melbourne Victory
2.08

Melbourne Victory creates 32% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

Newcastle Jets
2.50
Melbourne Victory
2.67

allows per match

Newcastle Jets
1.50
Melbourne Victory
0.67

finishing

Newcastle Jets+0.00on par
Melbourne Victory+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Newcastle Jets ↓

Melbourne Victory →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Newcastle Jets or draw
51%
Newcastle Jets or Melbourne Victory
79%
Draw or Melbourne Victory
70%

Winning margin

Newcastle Jets wins by 2+
14%
Melbourne Victory wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Newcastle Jets 1+ goals
79%
Newcastle Jets 2+ goals
47%
Newcastle Jets 3+ goals
21%
Melbourne Victory 1+ goals
87%
Melbourne Victory 2+ goals
61%
Melbourne Victory 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Newcastle Jets (draw refunded)
38%
Melbourne Victory (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Newcastle Jets at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

Melbourne Victory away — creates 2.67, concedes 0.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Newcastle Jets attack 2.50 + Melbourne Victory defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.58

Melbourne Victory attack 2.67 + Newcastle Jets defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Newcastle Jets scores more
30%
level
21%
Melbourne Victory scores more
49%

Melbourne Victory at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Melbourne Victory will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Australia Cup: Newcastle Jets 2–2 Melbourne Victory

Newcastle Jets and Melbourne Victory drew 2-2 in Australia Cup on July 17, 2023.

The match was played at Larrakia Park in Darwin.