Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Newcastle Jets II vs Maitland — Northern NSW NPL 2026

Newcastle Jets II
Newcastle Jets II
FT
1 – 2
Maitland
Maitland
5/26/2019Northern NSW NPLNorthern NSW NPL · Round 11Cooks Square Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Newcastle Jets II24%
×Draw20%
Maitland56%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Newcastle Jets II
1.38
Maitland
2.20

Maitland creates 59% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 85 away

creates per match

Newcastle Jets II
1.21
Maitland
2.18

allows per match

Newcastle Jets II
2.21
Maitland
1.54

finishing

Newcastle Jets II+0.00on par
Maitland+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Newcastle Jets II ↓

Maitland →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–27%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Newcastle Jets II or draw
44%
Newcastle Jets II or Maitland
80%
Draw or Maitland
76%

Winning margin

Newcastle Jets II wins by 2+
10%
Maitland wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

Newcastle Jets II 1+ goals
75%
Newcastle Jets II 2+ goals
40%
Newcastle Jets II 3+ goals
16%
Maitland 1+ goals
89%
Maitland 2+ goals
64%
Maitland 3+ goals
37%

Draw no bet

Newcastle Jets II (draw refunded)
30%
Maitland (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Newcastle Jets II at home — creates 1.21, concedes 2.21 · 14 matches

Maitland away — creates 2.18, concedes 1.54 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Newcastle Jets II attack 1.21 + Maitland defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.38

Maitland attack 2.18 + Newcastle Jets II defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 2.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Newcastle Jets II scores more
24%
level
20%
Maitland scores more
56%

Maitland at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Maitland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Northern NSW NPL: Newcastle Jets II 1–2 Maitland

Maitland beat Newcastle Jets II 2-1 in Northern NSW NPL on May 26, 2019.

The match was played at Cooks Square Park in East Maitland.