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Maitland vs Newcastle Jets II — Northern NSW NPL 2026

Maitland
Maitland
FT
2 – 0
Newcastle Jets II
Newcastle Jets II
7/15/2018Northern NSW NPLNorthern NSW NPL · Round 17Cooks Square Park (East Maitland)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Maitland49%
×Draw22%
Newcastle Jets II30%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maitland
2.03
Newcastle Jets II
1.56

Maitland creates 30% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 12 away

creates per match

Maitland
2.14
Newcastle Jets II
1.67

allows per match

Maitland
1.45
Newcastle Jets II
1.92

finishing

Maitland+0.00on par
Newcastle Jets II+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maitland ↓

Newcastle Jets II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Maitland or draw
70%
Maitland or Newcastle Jets II
78%
Draw or Newcastle Jets II
51%

Winning margin

Maitland wins by 2+
28%
Newcastle Jets II wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Maitland 1+ goals
87%
Maitland 2+ goals
60%
Maitland 3+ goals
33%
Newcastle Jets II 1+ goals
79%
Newcastle Jets II 2+ goals
46%
Newcastle Jets II 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Maitland (draw refunded)
62%
Newcastle Jets II (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maitland at home — creates 2.14, concedes 1.45 · 84 matches

Newcastle Jets II away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.92 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maitland attack 2.14 + Newcastle Jets II defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 2.03

Newcastle Jets II attack 1.67 + Maitland defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Maitland scores more
49%
level
22%
Newcastle Jets II scores more
30%

Maitland at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Maitland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Maitland vs Newcastle Jets II

Maitland beat Newcastle Jets II 2-0 in Northern NSW NPL on July 15, 2018.

The match was played at Cooks Square Park (East Maitland).