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Newcastle Jets II vs Bonnyrigg White Eagles — New South Wales NPL 2 2026

Newcastle Jets II
Newcastle Jets II
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Bonnyrigg White Eagles
Bonnyrigg White Eagles
L. Johnson 69'
O. Cockle 60'
E. Debono 39'
J. Rafty 24'
C. Mendy 81'
7/26/2025New South Wales NPL 2New South Wales NPL 2 · Round 25Lake Macquarie Regional Football Facility Field 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Newcastle Jets II48%
×Draw21%
Bonnyrigg White Eagles31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Newcastle Jets II
2.10
Bonnyrigg White Eagles
1.68

Newcastle Jets II creates 25% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 62 away

creates per match

Newcastle Jets II
2.23
Bonnyrigg White Eagles
1.31

allows per match

Newcastle Jets II
2.04
Bonnyrigg White Eagles
1.98

finishing

Newcastle Jets II+0.00on par
Bonnyrigg White Eagles+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Newcastle Jets II ↓

Bonnyrigg White Eagles →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Newcastle Jets II or draw
69%
Newcastle Jets II or Bonnyrigg White Eagles
79%
Draw or Bonnyrigg White Eagles
52%

Winning margin

Newcastle Jets II wins by 2+
27%
Bonnyrigg White Eagles wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Newcastle Jets II 1+ goals
88%
Newcastle Jets II 2+ goals
62%
Newcastle Jets II 3+ goals
35%
Bonnyrigg White Eagles 1+ goals
81%
Bonnyrigg White Eagles 2+ goals
50%
Bonnyrigg White Eagles 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Newcastle Jets II (draw refunded)
60%
Bonnyrigg White Eagles (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Newcastle Jets II at home — creates 2.23, concedes 2.04 · 26 matches

Bonnyrigg White Eagles away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.98 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Newcastle Jets II attack 2.23 + Bonnyrigg White Eagles defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 2.10

Bonnyrigg White Eagles attack 1.31 + Newcastle Jets II defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Newcastle Jets II scores more
48%
level
21%
Bonnyrigg White Eagles scores more
31%

Newcastle Jets II at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Newcastle Jets II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'
J. Rafty
39'
E. Debono
60'
O. Cockle
69'
L. Johnson
81'
C. Mendy

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Newcastle Jets II vs Bonnyrigg White Eagles

Newcastle Jets II beat Bonnyrigg White Eagles 4-1 in New South Wales NPL 2 on July 26, 2025.

Goals: J. Rafty (24'), E. Debono (39'), O. Cockle (60'), L. Johnson (69'), C. Mendy (81').

The match was played at Lake Macquarie Regional Football Facility Field 1 in Newcastle.