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Bonnyrigg White Eagles vs Newcastle Jets II — New South Wales NPL 2 2026

Bonnyrigg White Eagles
Bonnyrigg White Eagles
FT
2 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Newcastle Jets II
Newcastle Jets II
A. Peterson 88'
D. Bittar 60'
O. Cockle 85'
L. West 75'
W. Southcombe 71'
A. Nunes 37'
4/12/2025New South Wales NPL 2New South Wales NPL 2 · Round 10Bonnyrigg Sports Club

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Bonnyrigg White Eagles37%
×Draw23%
Newcastle Jets II40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bonnyrigg White Eagles
1.68
Newcastle Jets II
1.76

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 65 home / 27 away

creates per match

Bonnyrigg White Eagles
1.57
Newcastle Jets II
2.11

allows per match

Bonnyrigg White Eagles
1.42
Newcastle Jets II
1.78

finishing

Bonnyrigg White Eagles+0.00on par
Newcastle Jets II+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bonnyrigg White Eagles ↓

Newcastle Jets II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Bonnyrigg White Eagles or draw
60%
Bonnyrigg White Eagles or Newcastle Jets II
77%
Draw or Newcastle Jets II
63%

Winning margin

Bonnyrigg White Eagles wins by 2+
19%
Newcastle Jets II wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Bonnyrigg White Eagles 1+ goals
81%
Bonnyrigg White Eagles 2+ goals
50%
Bonnyrigg White Eagles 3+ goals
24%
Newcastle Jets II 1+ goals
83%
Newcastle Jets II 2+ goals
52%
Newcastle Jets II 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Bonnyrigg White Eagles (draw refunded)
48%
Newcastle Jets II (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bonnyrigg White Eagles at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.42 · 65 matches

Newcastle Jets II away — creates 2.11, concedes 1.78 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bonnyrigg White Eagles attack 1.57 + Newcastle Jets II defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.68

Newcastle Jets II attack 2.11 + Bonnyrigg White Eagles defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Bonnyrigg White Eagles scores more
37%
level
23%
Newcastle Jets II scores more
40%

Newcastle Jets II at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Newcastle Jets II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

37'
A. Nunes
60'
D. Bittar
71'
W. Southcombe
75'
L. West
85'
O. Cockle
88'
A. Peterson

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bonnyrigg White Eagles vs Newcastle Jets II

Newcastle Jets II beat Bonnyrigg White Eagles 4-2 in New South Wales NPL 2 on April 12, 2025.

Goals: A. Nunes (37'), D. Bittar (60'), W. Southcombe (71'), L. West (75'), O. Cockle (85'), A. Peterson (88').

The match was played at Bonnyrigg Sports Club in Sydney.