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New Zealand vs Tunisia — Friendlies 2026

New Zealand
New Zealand
Pens
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Tunisia
Tunisia
A. Rufer 120+7' (pen)
K. Barbarouses 120+3' (pen)
A. Ghram 120+8' (pen)
A. Abdi 120+6' (pen)
A. Laïdouni 120+4' (pen)
M. Ben Romdhane 120+2' (pen)
3/26/2024FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 1Cairo International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

New Zealand50%
×Draw26%
Tunisia23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

New Zealand
1.50
Tunisia
0.93

New Zealand creates 61% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 18 away

creates per match

New Zealand
1.43
Tunisia
0.72

allows per match

New Zealand
1.14
Tunisia
1.56

finishing

New Zealand+0.00on par
Tunisia+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

New Zealand ↓

Tunisia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

New Zealand or draw
77%
New Zealand or Tunisia
74%
Draw or Tunisia
50%

Winning margin

New Zealand wins by 2+
26%
Tunisia wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

New Zealand 1+ goals
78%
New Zealand 2+ goals
44%
New Zealand 3+ goals
19%
Tunisia 1+ goals
61%
Tunisia 2+ goals
24%
Tunisia 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

New Zealand (draw refunded)
68%
Tunisia (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

New Zealand at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

Tunisia away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.56 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

New Zealand attack 1.43 + Tunisia defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.50

Tunisia attack 0.72 + New Zealand defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

New Zealand scores more
50%
level
26%
Tunisia scores more
23%

New Zealand at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "New Zealand will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22
B. Ben SaïdTunisiaTunisia · G
7.9

Match Events

31'
Kosta BarbarousesPenalty confirmed
36'
Tyler Bindon
39'
Kosta BarbarousesPenalty cancelled
46'
E. Saad← H. Rafia
46'
S. Ltaief← H. Jelassi
48'
Nader Ghandri
71'
M. Zaddem← N. Ghandri
71'
A. Ghram← D. Bronn
74'
E. Just← S. Singh
81'
B. Old← M. Garbett
82'
B. Waine← C. McCowatt
90+2'
A. Dahmen← B. Ben Saïd
120+1'
B. WaineMissed penalty
120+2'
M. Ben RomdhanePenalty
120+3'
K. BarbarousesPenalty
120+4'
A. LaïdouniPenalty
120+5'
E. JustMissed penalty
120+6'
A. AbdiPenalty
120+7'
A. RuferPenalty
120+8'
A. GhramPenalty

Possession

47%New

Shots

8New

Pass accuracy

50%New

Statistics

NewTunisia
Overview
47%Possession53%
8Total Shots10
4Corners4
19Fouls12
Shots
8Total Shots10
4On Target0
4Off Target6
0Blocked4
3Inside Box5
5Outside Box5
Passing
47%Possession53%
417Total Passes485
354Accurate Passes418
85%Pass Accuracy86%
Goalkeeping
0Saves4
Discipline
19Fouls12
1Yellow Cards1
3Offsides2

Friendlies: New Zealand 0–0 Tunisia

New Zealand and Tunisia drew 0-0 in Friendlies on March 26, 2024.

Goals: M. Ben Romdhane (120+2' pen), K. Barbarouses (120+3' pen), A. Laïdouni (120+4' pen), A. Abdi (120+6' pen), A. Rufer (120+7' pen), A. Ghram (120+8' pen).

Tunisia controlled possession (53%) and registered 10 shots to 8.

The match was played at Cairo International Stadium in Cairo.