New York Red Bulls 1–1 Houston Dynamo

New York Red Bulls

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Houston Dynamo

4/15/2023

Major League Soccer · Round 11Red Bull Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

New York Red Bulls45%

×Draw24%

Houston Dynamo32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

New York Red BullsExpected goals in this matchHouston Dynamo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

1.40

New York Red Bulls

1.70

Houston Dynamo

1.40

New York Red Bulls creates 21% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

1.84

creates per match

1.30

1.49

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

New York Red Bulls

1.84

Houston Dynamo

1.30

allows per match

New York Red Bulls

1.49

Houston Dynamo

1.56

+0.05on par

finishing

+0.38scores more than expected

finishing

New York Red Bulls+0.05on par

Houston Dynamo+0.38scores more

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

New York Red Bulls ↓

Houston Dynamo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

New York Red Bulls or draw

68%

New York Red Bulls or Houston Dynamo

76%

Draw or Houston Dynamo

55%

Winning margin

New York Red Bulls wins by 2+

23%

Houston Dynamo wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

New York Red Bulls 1+ goals

82%

New York Red Bulls 2+ goals

51%

New York Red Bulls 3+ goals

24%

Houston Dynamo 1+ goals

75%

Houston Dynamo 2+ goals

41%

Houston Dynamo 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

New York Red Bulls (draw refunded)

58%

Houston Dynamo (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

New York Red Bulls at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.49 · 19 matches

Houston Dynamo away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.56 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

New York Red Bulls attack 1.84 + Houston Dynamo defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.70

Houston Dynamo attack 1.30 + New York Red Bulls defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

New York Red Bulls scores more

45%

level

24%

Houston Dynamo scores more

32%

New York Red Bulls at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "New York Red Bulls will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff